Thursday, August 30, 2012

The SEC Helmet Calendar, Complete w/ Predicted Outcomes

Alright, here we go. Gotta say that I'm excited about this year. The on-field entertainment will be plenty, but I love the drama of hot seats, suspensions, smack-talk, and more.

Every year, something unexpected happens.

But, here is what I expect, in terms of results...

Like always, I break schedules down mathematically - guaranteed wins, guaranteed losses, and undecideds (toss-ups). That gives us a range on what the win/loss expectations are for the fan bases - of which they will totally disregard after Week 1.

Here's the Helmet Calendar with green wins, yellow losses, and blue undecideds:
Obviously the chart was done by a Georgia fan, with Jorts
in for Florida. I found it appropriate.
Click to enlarge.
And the breakdown of W/L/U:

Florida - 8/1/3, Best case: 11-1, Worst case: 8-4
Georgia - 10/0/2, Best case: 12-0, Worst case: 10-2
Kentucky - 3/8/1, Best case: 4-8, Worst case: 3-9
Mizzou - 5/5/2, Best case: 7-5, Worst case: 5-7
SoCar - 9/1/2, Best case: 11-1, Worst case: 9-3
Tenn - 4/7/1, Best case: 5-7, Worst case: 4-8
Vandy - 6/4/2, Best case: 8-4, Worst case: 6-6

Alabama - 11/0/1, Best case: 12-0, Worst case: 11-1
Arkansas - 6/4/2, Best case: 8-4, Worst case: 6-6
Auburn - 4/4/4, Best case: 8-4, Worst case: 4-8
LSU - 11/0/1, Best case: 12-0, Worst case: 11-1
Ole Miss - 2/9/1, Best case: 3-9, Worst case: 2-10
State - 7/2/3, Best case: 10-2, Worst case: 7-5
A&M - 6/3/3, Best case: 9-3, Worst case: 6-6

What I take from this:

1) Auburn fans should have a great season, because they have the widest swing, with 4 undecideds. There's a canyon-esque difference between 4-8 and 8-4, making all games matter - and it's more fun when it matters.

2) State winning 10 games? I don't think so either, but with where I see Arkansas ending the season, State wins that game at home. Could be one hell of a season for the cowbells, all things considered.

3) Speaking of Arkansas, this will not end well. You already play LSU & Alabama, and I can only compare it all to the Dennis Francione/Mike Price/Mike Shula exchange - that was a messy situation all around with Fran dashing off, the NCAA, strip clubs, and a deer in headlights. The prior season was 10 wins - Bama went 4-9 in '03. Just saying that I don't have a lot of confidence in Arkansas picking right back up.

4) If I'm doing the math right, there is a potential of the SEC finishing with 4 one-loss or less teams this year. That would do nothing towards people's tolerance of the SEC and its fans.

My predicted standings:

East: Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, Vandy, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky
West: LSU, Alabama, State, Auburn, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Ole Miss

LSU wins SEC.

There you have it.

Twitter: @harry_long

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Why I Took The Over On UGA Wins

9.5 (9' for those in the know.)

That's the bar for the number of wins that Vegas and other entities have set for Mark Richt's mighty mighty Bulldogs. Am I crazy, or is this easy pickings?

Let's break it down mathematically. Because, who can argue with math besides Pete Townshend? ("One and one make one"?)

The way I do these things is I break schedules down into games of three categories: Guaranteed Wins, Guaranteed Losses, and Undecideds. Undecideds are games that I just can't say for sure who should win outright, for various reasons.

And speaking of schedules... have you SEEN Georgia's schedule?

I know that it has been the talk among some radio shows, and it's this year's bane of existence to Steve Spurrier. Check it out...

This is a picture of Georgia's schedule.
Cute, right?
9/1 Buffalo
9/8 @ Mizzou
9/15 Florida Atlantic
9/22 Vanderbilt
9/29 Tennessee
10/6 @ South Carolina
10/13 BYE
10/20 @ Kentucky
10/27 Florida
11/3 Ole Miss
11/10 @ Auburn
11/17 Georgia Southern
11/24 Georgia Tech

Goodness me. #Doormats.

Alright, let's not waste too much time - here's how it breaks down:

Guaranteed Wins: Buffalo, Mizzou, Florida Atlantic, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Auburn, Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech... That makes 10 already.

Guaranteed Losses: None.

Undecideds: South Carolina, Florida

All of the guaranteeds should make sense. Vandy never gets any breaks on the road, Mizzou just flat isn't as good, same with Auburn, and Todd Grantham is defending the option pretty well - make it four straight losses for the Nerds in Yellow.

South Carolina really is a toss up, and unless there is some injury, I always stay away from the Cocktail Party. Too many athletes on the field in Jacksonville, both sides.

So, if the total wins number is set at 9.5, and we've already got 10 guaranteeds... WITH the opportunity of winning two more?

What am I missing? Make that play.

But, looking a little larger... is Georgia going to be undefeated going into Atlanta? It's not crazy the way this has worked out. Probably the softest SEC schedule in recent history will still get a lot of credit with voters. And in a one-game situation, with Aaron Murray as the QB (not shabby, now), I wouldn't put an almost unthinkable scenario out of the question.

Not saying it's going to happen - got to beat South Carolina, got to beat Florida, and got to beat Alabama/LSU - it's not easy.

What a difference a year & a schedule can make.
Amazing though, that a year ago, Mark Richt was going almost week to week on the hot seat, and he's got an outside lane/short cut opportunity to get to Atlanta and beyond? That's incredible.

What's worse.. what if they don't even come close? How will Georgia fans respond to that?

Even worse if that happens? I lose my bet.

I'm on Twitter because it's the cool thing. Follow me: @harry_long

Monday, August 27, 2012

The Re-Casting of Space Jam

LeBron James was asked, and he responded. He'd like to be in Space Jam 2.

Maybe that'd work? Since LeBron has been able to do everything else he's ever been asked (and we know he can dance), I'm sure he could match the acting skills of Michael Jordan.

Watch Space Jam as an adult - you'll see what I mean.

CBS Sports was pretty clever and asked the question of who should be recast as the NBA players for Space Jam 2. Here's my lineup:

There they are: Bradley, Barkley, Ewing, Mugsy, & Larry
1) Yao Ming - huge international box office opportunity.
2) Kevin Love - funny guy, plays same position as Barkley, and great for the social media promotion of the movie
3) Kendrick Perkins - Not the player that Ewing was, but could double in the movie as an angry genie.
4) Nate Robinson - no more to be said.
5) Lamar Odom - because he needs the work, and the Kardashian connection could bring the female audience.

Perhaps the alien team would consist of a 19 year old Kevin Garnett, Joakim Noah, Popeye Jones, Charlie Villanueva, and Chris Andersen.

I'm on Twitter. Follow me. @harry_long

Monday, August 20, 2012

My New Hero

Between my lists of "Things I Should Have Thought of First" and "Things I Thought of First But Didn't Do Anything About", I have been beaten to the punch yet again.

The Mountain Brook Bad Driver Facebook Page.

Meet the right guy in college? Check.
Acquire $80,000 vehicle? Check.
General awareness skills? Eh...
Browse around and enjoy it, as this stuff is spot on. I was recently in the parking lot behind the Piggly Wiggly in Crestline - saw a lady almost give herself whiplash backing out of Zoe's.

What a glorious usage of the Internet and social media. This is what Al Gore had in mind.

(Big Ups to EB for the tip.)

Twitter that thang, fo - @harry_long.

Sunday, August 19, 2012

Somebody's Good Idea

Not sure the pic will give you a full feel for it, but this car is Pepto pink.

Don't adjust your set.

I'm on twitter: @harry_long

Monday, August 13, 2012

Honey Badger's Character

I'm a few days late on this, but before I commented, I wanted to hear more reaction via the universe's cultural epicenter, i.e., the Paul Finebaum Radio Network.

Honey Badger.
Smiling for the camera.
Yep, Honey Badger got caught (again) smoking weed. My favorite Les Miles quote: "We extended ourselves to the full length of the policy." Only Les would put it so succinctly and so unintentionally hilarious.

Weber over at LostLetterman.com has a very similar take to me, so I recommend checking it out. Don't read anything by people who disagree with me. They are fools.

But where I get all wound up in the craziness was listening to hours of conversation Friday and Monday with everyone - adults, mind you - referring to Mathieu solely as "the Honey Badger". He really had become a cartoon character, funny name and all.

Yet in the middle of all it's grand lunacy, isn't it a bit ridiculous that was how everyone referred to him? ('Everyone' is a loose term. But probably over 85%.) Kind of reminds me of the whole month I had to hear the words "tea bag" on the radio. Still can't believe that became part of standard radio nomenclature.

The way Tyrann (first time I've used his first name - sixth paragraph) embraced and developed the Honey Badger 'character' was truly a masterpiece. Vince McMahon ought to be calling him up right now. To be so loved by his fan base and to be so viciously hated by his rival schools, fan bases, and opponents - it really is something akin to professional wrestling.

And it's this whirlwind of attention and this assumed role that probably led to his demise. The 'untouchable-ness' of celebrity. Whereas a year ago, Mathieu had one start to his credit. He ended the season with a plane ticket to New York. In what I think is comparable to a child star, his rise was so fast, and the public's love/disdain for his character, I wouldn't be surprised if he felt a little outside of himself - like this was really happening to someone else or that it all wasn't real.

He was being who everyone wanted him to be. Wouldn't you start feeling a bit invincible too?

It's a shame this happened, because not only was he walking entertainment, Mathieu really was one of the most exciting players in college football. LSU will have guys who are plenty athletic to play cornerback in the SEC. But there are only so many Desmond Howards, Deion Sanders, David Palmers, et al, who can flip the field on special teams. It got to the point last year, you just didn't want to kick to this kid. Kick it out of bounds - at least the Honey Badger won't hurt us.

Dennis being as bad as
everyone expects him to be.
You hope he can put it together - because we've seen some be able to, and others not. Charlie Sheen seems to have himself back after his Torpedo of Truth run last year. We've all seen the continued struggles of a very similar-type situation with Dennis Rodman.

Sheen (likely because of drug use) and Rodman (ditto) lost themselves in the character that the world saw them as. And even for them, it was too much to handle.

Now, I'm not saying that Honey Badger only smoked weed because he was a celebrity. (He may have smoked weed without the success - lots of other less successful people do.) But I will say that he felt comfortable smoking enough to get caught for the third time because he was a celebrity. And celebrities don't have to live with consequences.

That is, unless you extend yourself beyond the full length of the policy.

I'm gonna miss the dude. Too bad, Honey Badger.

You can find me on Twitter, where I type a lot less: @harry_long

License Plate of the Day

She was also sporting three CB attennas. I imagine her handle being something like "Sprinkles" or "Hot Fudge".


And I'm all over that Twitter junk. @harry_long

Quote of the Weekend, Olympics

Say 'absolutely' one more time, PJ.
I dare you...
I was listening to the radio call of the Gold Medal game on Sunday, with PJ Carlesimo on the color commentary. (Have no idea who was the play-by-play.) While on the radio dial, I got a glimpse of broadcasting greatness.

As you know, the US got gold. Which led to PJ's Jim Nantz Moment.
Was it a challenge? Absolutely. Did they rise to that challenge? More absolutely.
More absolutely?

How can something be more absolute? How would that work?

Did PJ get strangled by Latrell, or did he get more strangled?

#Dumb

You should follow me on Twitter. More follow, more absolutely. @harry_long