Thursday, August 30, 2012

The SEC Helmet Calendar, Complete w/ Predicted Outcomes

Alright, here we go. Gotta say that I'm excited about this year. The on-field entertainment will be plenty, but I love the drama of hot seats, suspensions, smack-talk, and more.

Every year, something unexpected happens.

But, here is what I expect, in terms of results...

Like always, I break schedules down mathematically - guaranteed wins, guaranteed losses, and undecideds (toss-ups). That gives us a range on what the win/loss expectations are for the fan bases - of which they will totally disregard after Week 1.

Here's the Helmet Calendar with green wins, yellow losses, and blue undecideds:
Obviously the chart was done by a Georgia fan, with Jorts
in for Florida. I found it appropriate.
Click to enlarge.
And the breakdown of W/L/U:

Florida - 8/1/3, Best case: 11-1, Worst case: 8-4
Georgia - 10/0/2, Best case: 12-0, Worst case: 10-2
Kentucky - 3/8/1, Best case: 4-8, Worst case: 3-9
Mizzou - 5/5/2, Best case: 7-5, Worst case: 5-7
SoCar - 9/1/2, Best case: 11-1, Worst case: 9-3
Tenn - 4/7/1, Best case: 5-7, Worst case: 4-8
Vandy - 6/4/2, Best case: 8-4, Worst case: 6-6

Alabama - 11/0/1, Best case: 12-0, Worst case: 11-1
Arkansas - 6/4/2, Best case: 8-4, Worst case: 6-6
Auburn - 4/4/4, Best case: 8-4, Worst case: 4-8
LSU - 11/0/1, Best case: 12-0, Worst case: 11-1
Ole Miss - 2/9/1, Best case: 3-9, Worst case: 2-10
State - 7/2/3, Best case: 10-2, Worst case: 7-5
A&M - 6/3/3, Best case: 9-3, Worst case: 6-6

What I take from this:

1) Auburn fans should have a great season, because they have the widest swing, with 4 undecideds. There's a canyon-esque difference between 4-8 and 8-4, making all games matter - and it's more fun when it matters.

2) State winning 10 games? I don't think so either, but with where I see Arkansas ending the season, State wins that game at home. Could be one hell of a season for the cowbells, all things considered.

3) Speaking of Arkansas, this will not end well. You already play LSU & Alabama, and I can only compare it all to the Dennis Francione/Mike Price/Mike Shula exchange - that was a messy situation all around with Fran dashing off, the NCAA, strip clubs, and a deer in headlights. The prior season was 10 wins - Bama went 4-9 in '03. Just saying that I don't have a lot of confidence in Arkansas picking right back up.

4) If I'm doing the math right, there is a potential of the SEC finishing with 4 one-loss or less teams this year. That would do nothing towards people's tolerance of the SEC and its fans.

My predicted standings:

East: Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, Vandy, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky
West: LSU, Alabama, State, Auburn, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Ole Miss

LSU wins SEC.

There you have it.

Twitter: @harry_long