Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Why I Took The Over On UGA Wins

9.5 (9' for those in the know.)

That's the bar for the number of wins that Vegas and other entities have set for Mark Richt's mighty mighty Bulldogs. Am I crazy, or is this easy pickings?

Let's break it down mathematically. Because, who can argue with math besides Pete Townshend? ("One and one make one"?)

The way I do these things is I break schedules down into games of three categories: Guaranteed Wins, Guaranteed Losses, and Undecideds. Undecideds are games that I just can't say for sure who should win outright, for various reasons.

And speaking of schedules... have you SEEN Georgia's schedule?

I know that it has been the talk among some radio shows, and it's this year's bane of existence to Steve Spurrier. Check it out...

This is a picture of Georgia's schedule.
Cute, right?
9/1 Buffalo
9/8 @ Mizzou
9/15 Florida Atlantic
9/22 Vanderbilt
9/29 Tennessee
10/6 @ South Carolina
10/13 BYE
10/20 @ Kentucky
10/27 Florida
11/3 Ole Miss
11/10 @ Auburn
11/17 Georgia Southern
11/24 Georgia Tech

Goodness me. #Doormats.

Alright, let's not waste too much time - here's how it breaks down:

Guaranteed Wins: Buffalo, Mizzou, Florida Atlantic, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Auburn, Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech... That makes 10 already.

Guaranteed Losses: None.

Undecideds: South Carolina, Florida

All of the guaranteeds should make sense. Vandy never gets any breaks on the road, Mizzou just flat isn't as good, same with Auburn, and Todd Grantham is defending the option pretty well - make it four straight losses for the Nerds in Yellow.

South Carolina really is a toss up, and unless there is some injury, I always stay away from the Cocktail Party. Too many athletes on the field in Jacksonville, both sides.

So, if the total wins number is set at 9.5, and we've already got 10 guaranteeds... WITH the opportunity of winning two more?

What am I missing? Make that play.

But, looking a little larger... is Georgia going to be undefeated going into Atlanta? It's not crazy the way this has worked out. Probably the softest SEC schedule in recent history will still get a lot of credit with voters. And in a one-game situation, with Aaron Murray as the QB (not shabby, now), I wouldn't put an almost unthinkable scenario out of the question.

Not saying it's going to happen - got to beat South Carolina, got to beat Florida, and got to beat Alabama/LSU - it's not easy.

What a difference a year & a schedule can make.
Amazing though, that a year ago, Mark Richt was going almost week to week on the hot seat, and he's got an outside lane/short cut opportunity to get to Atlanta and beyond? That's incredible.

What's worse.. what if they don't even come close? How will Georgia fans respond to that?

Even worse if that happens? I lose my bet.

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