Saturday, October 26, 2013

Week 9 Confidence

5-10-1.

What can I say, other than we are just going to press on.

The Confidence:

Auburn -23

I went against the Tigers last week, as I thought Johnny Manziel was going to put some mojo on that ball. He was good, but Auburn played large and scored points. They'll do it again here against a not-very-good Florida Atlantic team. Don't see Auburn letting off the gas peddle until late - they're playing the 2 QBs, and I think Gus will want to get as many quality looks as he can with both. Tigers play deep into the game, and they continue to score.

Oklahoma -6'

This number's going the right way, and I've talked to a friend who likes this play, but is also in love with Kliff Kingsbury. That means he must really think this is the way to go. I'm rolling with my guy on this one.

Do what you can.

@harry_long

Saturday, October 19, 2013

Week 8 Confidence

5-8-1 on the season, with 6(?) weeks to go. We can see the other end, but need to get some 2-0s on the board.

We'll be catching most of the action today from Talladega, where tomorrow they've got an event where people go in circles for hours on end. And it is awesome. Looking forward to that.

In this week's picks, I'm concerned about winning - and only winning. So I'm throwing a bit of a curveball at the picks here, but it has been something I've been doing with some success this season. Hold tight.

The picks...

South Carolina -4 FIRST HALF

Tennessee broke our hearts a couple of weeks ago by mounting a huge comeback against Georgia, only to lose in OT. This was where Georgia's injuries were really starting to show. Tennessee played inspired, at home, but I still have little faith in them as an on-field product right now.

Now that Mizzou knocked off Georgia, there's like a 10-way tie for first in the East. New life for South Carolina, and I don't think Steve wants to mess around. They jump out early on Tennessee, and that's why we want the first half.

Texas A&M -13

Sorry to all my Auburn fans. Not today. A lot of "experts" are throwing our rumblings of a possible upset - but they are selling a game. Johnny Manziel is still the best player in college football - love him or hate him, doesn't matter - and Auburn, I believe, hasn't done itself any favors with what looks to be the onset of a dual quarterback system/controversy.

I think Gus Malzahn is awesome, but I never like the idea of creating a situation where players are now looking over their shoulders. Because once/if Nick Marshall has just the hint of a struggle, fans/coaches will start wondering if they need to go ahead and throw Johnson in. That wasn't the situation two weeks ago - why allow that to happen? I don't understand.

An uneasy situation for one side, and the other side has the best player in football at home. I think they can handle two scores.

There you have it. Let's make it 2-0 and get things right.

I'm on Twitter: @harry_long

Saturday, October 12, 2013

Week 7 Confidence

1-1 last week, taking the year to 4-7-1. At least we can see the other side now.

I'm working the Cask & Drum today in Birmingham, so I'll tell Dwight Yoakam you said hello. I'm heading off to that in a few minutes, so here's the confidence for the week.

Florida +7'

Get that half point. I've talked to a couple of our more well-known talking heads this past week, and there's a bit of a consensus that the Gators could beat LSU straight up. I'm liking Muschamp to keep his young quarterback (and I bet we see a good bit of wildcat/wildgator with Burton) in a conservative role, as well as his defense keeping it close. And who knows at the end. But I'm comfortable with the Gators and a score.

Alabama -25'

I'm always big on Nick Saban covering in conference games, and Kentucky is as close to a Georgia State or Western Carolina as you'll find in the SEC. Look for the Tide to get out early and score quick - eliminate any hopes for the Wildcats. Bama takes this one big in it's string of not playing anyone in October.

See you later.

@harry_long

Saturday, October 5, 2013

Confidence, Week 6

No early games this week, so no one freak out.

A win and a push is better than 2 losses as we get this all turned around. We now sit at 3-6-1 on the confidence this year. And with all the bad beats we've had, it's time the magic rolled back towards us. I'm feeling better about things, and let's see it pay off.

Some good games this week, at least to watch. I can't believe CBS chose Tennessee/Florida over Ole Miss/Auburn - apparently the suits at CBS think it's 1997. The better game will be down on the plains tonight.

But we care about picks, so let's get to that.

LSU -6'

Now, I'm finding this game all over the place. Scores and Odds has it 9, other places all the way down to 6. Don't ask me. But if I can get it at 6'... then I'm taking that sucker. You should, too. LSU was just caught by the clock in the UGA matchup (whoever would of had the ball back with reasonable time would of won that game). And they show they can and will score points.

This is going to get ugly in Starkville.

Georgia -12'

Another case of my 'Top 3/Bottom 3' theory, (although now it's either Top 3/Bottom 4) Georgia and Tennessee recruit heavily against each other, and when one has the upper hand - they like to keep it pressed down for as long as they can. Tennessee has shown a propensity to do nothing well against mediocre teams and even less against good ones. With that running game, for Georgia to eventually move up two scores and hold it... no problem. Go Dawgs.

There's also a nod to Ohio State in their game, but that would go beyond my deal here. Do what you must.

Good luck.

I'm on Twitter, and it's a good time. @harry_long