Saturday, November 30, 2013

Nick Saban Isn't The Only One Going Undefeated Today... Week 14 Confidence Plays

Yep, there's a clue in that title on how I think the Iron Bowl is going to go.

I hope you survived Black Friday. You people who participate in that Wal-Mart/Hunger Games-style shit are a bunch of idiots. No way in hell I'd ever be around that many people. Really - you want to see the worst of society, watch those Black Friday Wal-Mart fight videos. I could do about 7,000 words on this, so let's digress. Now, on to football...

A B.S. backdoor cover from Indiana kept us from a 2-0 week last week, so we must move on and make the most of our post Turkey Day weekend activities. 10-15-1 on the year, as we just couldn't dig out of that early hole that Lane Kiffin dug for us in September.

So let's do this, and then roll big in Championship Week and the Bowls:

THE PICKS...

NORTH CAROLINA -4

Sad to say, but the Duke dream stops short here. No luck with Miami whipping Pittsburgh earlier, the pressure is on Duke to win on the road for their ACC championship appearance. Duke or Miami in the championship game... what do you think is supposed to happen? Riding a five game win streak with some fairly impressive wins over BC and Pitt, UNC is finishing off the year well after a tumultuous September and early October. And even there losses there (for the most part) were competitive games. UNC is a decent team that just figured it out too late in the year. Duke football is... Duke football.

ALABAMA -10

As of this posting, ScoresandOdds.com has it at 10'. So, of course, I'm telling you to buy that hook. If I'm picking against your team, I guess that means I'm a homer, however, I look at a greatly improved Auburn team that has been playing out of its mind - and greatly relying on the unfortunate play of others. While this Alabama team hasn't been as sharp this season (the penalties, in particular), the defensive speed is still there to cover from sideline to sideline, and they can still tackle in space. That combination is not good for the Tigers. I also don't believe that Auburn can stop Alabama on any consistent basis, and unless they are going to suit up Cam Newton, any two-score deficit for Auburn will be major trouble. Home crowd helps, but Bama wins by 14.

And there you have it. Go make millions.

I'm on Twitter: @harry_long

Sunday, November 24, 2013

License Plate 'O the Day


This Auburn fan would like to remind you that she is a grown ass woman. 

Saturday, November 23, 2013

Confidence, Week 13

9-14-1 on the year.

(1-1 a week ago, thanks to AJ McCarron sleepwalking in Starkville. A good way to read how AJ is going to play is to check out how much zip there is on his passes early in the game. If there's no pop to it, look forward to be a long, extremely average or worse day for AJ.)

The record is not good, I know. Going with the quick, "mobile" post today, because it's what all the cool kids are doing. 

Let's make this a good week. 

Michigan State -6

This number is going the right way for us, and these are two teams are just going in different directions. Michigan State, I believe, is a legitimate top 10 or 12 team, and Northwestern is just falling apart. One score is all you need here.

Ohio State -34

This number has not been going the right way for us, but I don't think it'll matter. Cold-weather or not, look for a route today at the Horseshoe. Urban Meyer has no tact, and is still playing his outside shot for the BCS title game. #GotToRunItUp

There you have it. 

Follow me on Twitter, @Harry_Long. 

Saturday, November 16, 2013

Confidence, Week 12

My friend and Derek Jeter super-fan Clark McDuff enjoys the word "paltry". Been a staple of his for years. Not even sure I can describe my 8-13-1 record this year as such.

But we press on... I even looked at my calendar this morning and saw that today was "National Bounce Back Saturday". That's an omen, folks.

Let's get to the picks.

*Early game: West Virginia/Kansas OVER 43

Strictly a numbers play here. Game opened at a total of 50, so we're getting a touchdown for free. There's some rain and wind, and neither team is all that great, but when a number moves like this, I like to go back to where the experts had it originally. If they were even close (and they often are), then the math works for us.

Alabama -23

I guess I'm going to keep riding this train - and I'm also clueless as to what is going to happen in Auburn. (Stay away!) There's some folks liking the Bully Bulldogs, but I don't see it. The machine rolls on, and a smidge above three scores shouldn't be too much against another underachieving State team. #HAIL.

Make the most of your Saturday.

@harry_long

Saturday, November 9, 2013

Week 11 Confidence

Hola, mis amigos.

0-fer last week. And believe me, I'm just as upset about it as you are. But we must move forward. And away we go...

Texas A&M -19

Arkansas let me down big time last weekend, and now I'm totally convinced that they just can't play. With Johnny Football slinging (and maybe inspired to get back to forefront of Heisman, as Mariota's stock is way low), I believe in three scores advantage for A&M. Lots of points at home for the Aggies.

Alabama -10

I've seen this number up to 12, but on my check just now has it at 10'. Buy the half point for cushion. These matchups can't always go down to the last possession, right? Don't think it will today. Not a blowout, but a nice comfortable win for Alabama, who I believe will play conservative - only way this gets close is LSU getting +2 in turnovers. Don't think that will happen.

I'm heading down to Tuscaloosa on a bus with a bunch of fools shortly. Ought to be a good time. Follow me on Twitter for updates. @harry_long

Monday, November 4, 2013

License Plate 'O the Day

LSU fan. 


Should it not be clear, she's telling you to SMAKTHS. 

A wise man once told me never mess with a woman who drives a Miata. 

Saturday, November 2, 2013

Week 10 Confidence

Finally a 2-0 weekend. Felt like forever, but it felt so good. Let's keep it rolling.

Alabama's got a bye week, so that means every church in the state is slammed with a compromised wedding date. We need a study done on the number of weddings that are crammed into this one day. And do any churches double up? How about preachers - one early church wedding, then they run over to a country club, then to a farm wedding? Must be hectic.

Now on to the confidence. We are 7-10-1 on the year, looking for more 2-0s. Here's where we found one:

Virginia Tech -3'

Va Tech lost to Duke last week. They aren't that bad. Boston College struggles to score against anyone that isn't Army. They are consistently poor. Big believer in the Hokies today, despite being on the road. While Va Tech has been awful (terrible, really) with turnovers, it would take an extensive amount of turnovers to keep BC close. The smart play is Virginia Tech, and we are going to be smart.

Miami +21'

I know. Jameis and company are awesome, and they've been laying the wood to everybody. But I'm sensing a bit of that ESPN-sell going on, and I usually jump against that. Ordinarily, ESPN is selling me on how close a matchup it's going to be (FSU/Clemson, for example), and it ends up as a blowout. Now, they're selling me on the "Is there any way Miami keeps this close?" I think that ends up in locker rooms, and Miami is loaded with talented players. Talented players that now have a wall of extra motivation, and will likely be more focused, more intense than they have all season.

This is a three touchdown spread only because Miami has put themselves in bad spots this year - not because someone else did it to them. (I've been watching the Canes each weekend.) Miami's intensity level will be through the roof... and you're giving me three touchdowns? Thanks, I'll take it.

There you have it. Let today be the day we pay for the kids' college education. Harvard or Yale?

@harry_long